Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has seen vessel traffic plummet by more than 95% since attacks on commercial ships reduced crossings significantly from February 28, 2026, with daily averages collapsing from 75–125 ships to near-zero levels[2][5]. This dramatic downturn frames the current 46% YES probability on Polymarket, where traders assess whether any finalized IMF PortWatch data point between now and July 2026 will meet the listed threshold[1][4]. Historical precedent suggests that unless geopolitical tensions ease or security guarantees improve, the chokepoint remains effectively closed to most transit calls, making a “Yes” resolution contingent on an unexpected surge rather than gradual recovery[7].

Key catalysts for traders include official announcements from Gulf states regarding maritime security, scheduled naval patrols, and any shifts in Iran’s stance on commercial shipping lanes[8]. Recent data from IMF PortWatch confirms ongoing trade disruptions, with no signs of traffic rebounding as of May 2026[2]. Traders should monitor conditional token flows on Polygon, USDC settlement activity, and news from ShipFinder or Macromicro for real-time updates on crude oil freight indices and vessel movements[9]. A sudden spike in finalized daily transit calls would be the primary trigger for a “Yes” outcome, but current trends indicate this remains unlikely without major policy changes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.