Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory expects normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July 2026, with daily highs typically ranging from 30°C to 36°C, making a 0% market-implied probability for any outcome below 31°C appear inconsistent with historical patterns and seasonal forecasts[1][3]. Recent seasonal guidance confirms that July temperatures are projected to be normal to above-normal, aligning with the long-term warming trend, while AccuWeather data shows July highs frequently reaching 36°C (96°F) in Hong Kong[3][6]. The market’s frontrunner is 31°C at 48%, with 30°C at 36%, suggesting traders are pricing in a high likelihood of temperatures at or above 31°C rather than dismissing the event entirely[1].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” releases for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” on 3 July 2026, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published[1]. The current hourly readings at midnight show an air temperature of 28°C with 88% humidity, and a tropical depression is located at 17.2°N, 110.9°E, which may influence cloud cover and temperature if it moves closer[4]. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket use USDC on the Polygon network with conditional tokens, meaning liquidity and price discovery depend on active participation in the 31°C and 30°C pools as the settlement window approaches 2026-07-03T12:00:00Z[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.